Trade and the Global Recession

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eaton, Jonathan; Kortum, Samuel; Neiman, Brent; Romalis, John
• 署名单位: Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; University of Chicago; University of Sydney
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20101557
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 3401-3438
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; business-cycle; productivity differences; vertical specialization; technological-change; intermediate inputs; capital goods; INVESTMENT; collapse; CRISIS

摘要

We develop a dynamic multicountry general equilibrium model to investigate forces acting on the global economy during the Great Recession and ensuing recovery. Our multisector framework accounts completely for countries' trade, investment, production, and GDPs in terms of different sets of shocks. Applying the model to 21 countries, we investigate the 29 percent drop in world trade in manufactures during the period 2008-2009. A shift in final spending away from tradable sectors, largely caused by declines in durables investment efficiency, accounts for most of the collapse in trade relative to GDP. Shocks to trade frictions, productivity, and demand play minor roles.