The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: McKay, Alisdair; Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
• 署名单位: Boston University; Columbia University; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20150063
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 3133-3158
• 关键词: consumption response; idiosyncratic risk; STIMULUS PAYMENTS; staggered prices; income; frictions

摘要

In recent years, central banks have increasingly turned to forward guidance as a central tool of monetary policy. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance has huge effects on current outcomes, and these effects grow with the horizon of the forward guidance. We present a model in which the power of forward guidance is highly sensitive to the assumption of complete markets. When agents face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints, a precautionary savings effect tempers their responses to changes in future interest rates. As a consequence, forward guidance has substantially less power to stimulate the economy.