Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Blinder, Alan S.; Watson, Mark W.
• 署名单位: Princeton University; Princeton University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20140913
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1015-1045
• 关键词: business-cycle; shocks; OIL; INFORMATION; PARTIES

摘要

The US economy has performed better when the president of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance. For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future.