Nonparametric Counterfactual Predictions in Neoclassical Models of International Trade

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Adao, Rodrigo; Costinot, Arnaud; Donaldson, Dave
• 署名单位: Princeton University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20150956
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 633-689
• 关键词: EXACT CONSUMERS-SURPLUS; product differentiation; GROWTH; specialization; identification; TECHNOLOGY; translog; gravity; MARKETS; prices

摘要

We develop a methodology to construct nonparametric counterfactual predictions, free of functional form restrictions on preferences and technology, in neoclassical models of international trade. First, we establish the equivalence between such models and reduced exchange models in which countries directly exchange factor services. This equivalence implies that, for an arbitrary change in trade costs, counterfactual changes in the factor content of trade, factor prices, and welfare only depend on the shape of a reduced factor demand system. Second, we provide sufficient conditions under which estimates of this system can be recovered nonparametrically. Together, these results offer a strict generalization of the parametric approach used in-so-called gravity models. Finally, we use China's recent integration into the world economy to illustrate the feasibility and potential benefits of our approach.