Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Leeper, Eric M.; Traum, Nora; Walker, Todd B.
• 署名单位: Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; National Bureau of Economic Research; North Carolina State University; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20111196
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 2409-2454
• 关键词: government spending multipliers; price-level; nonseparable preferences; aggregate demand; great recession; DSGE models; POLICY; consumption; EMPLOYMENT; purchases

摘要

We quantify government spending multipliers in US data using Bayesian prior and posterior analysis of a monetary model with fiscal details and two distinct monetary-fiscal policy regimes. The combination of model specification, observable data, and relatively diffuse priors for some parameters lands posterior estimates in regions of the parameter space that yield fresh perspectives on the transmission mechanisms that underlie government spending multipliers. Short-run output multipliers are comparable across regimes-posterior means around 1.3 on impact-but much larger after 10 years under passive money/active fiscal than under active money/passive fiscal-90 percent credible sets of [1.5, 1.9] versus [0.1, 0.4] in present value, when estimated from 1955 to 2016. (JEL E52, E62, E63, H50)