Learning the Wealth of Nations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Buera, Francisco J.; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Primiceri, Giorgio E.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA8299
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 1-45
• 关键词: discrete-choice; GROWTH; POLICY; MODEL; experimentation; identification; inflation; beliefs; income

摘要

We study the evolution of market-oriented policies over time and across countries. We consider a model in which own and neighbors' past experiences influence policy choices through their effect on policymakers' beliefs. We estimate the model using a large panel of countries and find that it fits a large fraction of the policy choices observed in the postwar data, including the slow adoption of liberal policies. Our model also predicts that there would be reversals to state intervention if nowadays the world was hit by a shock of the size of the Great Depression.