A STRUCTURAL EVALUATION OF A LARGE-SCALE QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL MICROFINANCE INITIATIVE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kaboski, Joseph P.; Townsend, Robert M.
• 署名单位: University of Notre Dame; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA7079
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 1357-1406
• 关键词: liquidity constraints; credit programs; IMPACT; consumption; models; CHOICE; matter; POOR; RISK

摘要

This paper uses a structural model to understand, predict, and evaluate the impact of an exogenous microcredit intervention program, the Thai Million Baht Village Fund program. We model household decisions in the face of borrowing constraints, income uncertainty, and high-yield indivisible investment opportunities. After estimation of parameters using preprogram data, we evaluate the model's ability to predict and interpret the impact of the village fund intervention. Simulations from the model mirror the data in yielding a greater increase in consumption than credit, which is interpreted as evidence of credit constraints. A cost-benefit analysis using the model indicates that some households value the program much more than its per household cost, but overall the program costs 30 percent more than the sum of these benefits.