Local Economic and Political Effects of Trade Deals: Evidence from NAFTA

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Choi, Jiwon; Kuziemko, Ilyana; Washington, Ebonya; Wright, Gavin
• 署名单位: Brandeis University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20220425
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 1540-1575
• 关键词: import competition; decline

摘要

Why have white , less -educated voters left the Democratic Party? We highlight the role of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ) . In event -study analysis , we demonstrate that counties whose 1990 employment depended on industries vulnerable to NAFTA suffered large and persistent employment losses after its implementation. Voters in these counties ( and protectionist voters regardless of geography ) turned away from the party of President Clinton , who promoted the agreement. This shift is larger for whites ( especially men and those without a college degree ) and social conservatives , suggesting that racial identity and social -issue positions mediate reactions to economic policies.