An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Greenwood, Jeremy; Kircher, Philipp; Santos, Cezar; Tertilt, Michele
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; University of Edinburgh; University of Edinburgh; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Banco de Portugal; University of Mannheim
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA11530
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1081-1113
• 关键词: hiv prevention; antiretroviral therapy; male circumcision; SEXUAL-BEHAVIORS; transmission; female; CONDOM; men; infectivity; marriage

摘要

Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions, namely, ART, circumcision, better condoms, and the treatment of other STDs. The efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework complements the insights from epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments.