The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spendingt

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kenny, Geoff; Weber, Michael
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; European Central Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20221167
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 645-677
• 关键词: expectations; INVESTMENT; shocks; IMPACT

摘要

We use randomized treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of treated households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys. Our results indicate that, after taking into account first moments, higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to significantly and persistently reduce their total monthly spending in subsequent months. Changes in spending are broad based across spending categories and apply to larger durable good purchases as well. (JEL D12, D81, D84, E21, E23, G51)