The Ends of 27 Big Depressionst

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ellison, Martin; Lee, Sang Seok; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshoj
• 署名单位: University of Oxford; Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20221479
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 134-168
• 关键词: great-depression; international transmission; inflation-expectations; economic-recovery; business-cycle; exchange-rates; gold standard; deflation; aggregate; Europe

摘要

How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest -sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500 variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on well-defined dates, inflationary expectations clearly rose in the wake of departure. Instrumental variable, difference -in -difference, and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal. (JEL E31, E32, E42, E43, F30, N10, N20)