Fragile New Economy: Intangible Capital, Corporate Savings Glut, and Financial Instability

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Li, Ye
• 署名单位: University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20190650
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1100-1141
• 关键词: US FIRMS HOLD; interest-rates; Global imbalances; structural-change; asset allocation; RISK-MANAGEMENT; monetary-policy; liquidity trap; cross-section; house prices

摘要

The transition toward an intangible-intensive economy reshapes financial systems by creating a self-perpetuating savings glut in the production sector. As intangibles become increasingly important, firms hoard liquidity to finance investment in intangibles of limited pledgeability. Firms' savings feed cheap leverage to financial intermediaries and allow intermediaries to bid up asset prices, which in turn encourages firms to save more for asset creation. This paper develops a macrofinance model that offers a coherent account of rising corporate savings, debt-fueled growth of intermediaries, declining interest rates, and rising asset valuation. Along these secular trends, endogenous financial risk accumulates. (JEL E43, E44, G12, G21, G31, G32)