The Global Financial Resource Curse

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Benigno, Gianluca; Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin
• 署名单位: Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); University of St Gallen
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211792
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 220-262
• 关键词: research-and-development; trade liberalization; endogenous growth; structural-change; capital flows; MODEL; PRODUCTIVITY; integration; imbalances; allocation

摘要

We provide a model connecting the global saving glut to productivity growth. The key feature is that the tradable sector is the engine of growth of the economy. Capital flows from developing countries to the United States boost demand for US nontradable goods, inducing a reallocation of US economic activity from the tradable sector to the nontradable one. In turn, lower profits in the tradable sector lead firms to cut back investment in innovation. Since innovation in the United States determines the evolution of the world technological frontier, the result is a drop in global productivity growth. ( JEL E21, E22, E23, E44, F32, F43, O31)