Generalized Local-to-Unity Models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dou, Liyu; Mueller, Ulrich K.
• 署名单位: The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; Princeton University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA17944
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 1825-1854
• 关键词: confidence-intervals; EFFICIENT TESTS; autoregressive roots; inference; regression; coefficients; parameters

摘要

We introduce a generalization of the popular local-to-unity model of time series persistence by allowing for p autoregressive (AR) roots and p - 1 moving average (MA) roots close to unity. This generalized local-to-unity model, GLTU(p), induces convergence of the suitably scaled time series to a continuous time Gaussian ARMA(p,p - 1) process on the unit interval. Our main theoretical result establishes the richness of this model class, in the sense that it can well approximate a large class of processes with stationary Gaussian limits that are not entirely distinct from the unit root benchmark. We show that Campbell and Yogo's (2006) popular inference method for predictive regressions fails to control size in the GLTU(2) model with empirically plausible parameter values, and we propose a limited-information Bayesian framework for inference in the GLTU(p) model and apply it to quantify the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity.