Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chopra, Felix; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
• 署名单位: IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Frankfurt School Finance & Management; University of Cologne; University of Cologne
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240022
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 2267-2305
• 关键词: house prices; inflation-expectations; consumption; WEALTH; INFORMATION; demand; equity

摘要

We conduct afield experiment with US households to study how expectations about long-run home price growth shape spending decisions. We exogenously vary survey respondents' expectations by providing different expert forecasts. Homeowners' spending, measured using rich home-scanner data, is inelastic to home price expectations. By contrast, renters reduce their spending when expecting higher home price growth. These patterns reflect positive wealth effects for owners from higher future wealth and negative income effects for both groups due to higher future housing costs. Our study highlights consequences of asset price growth and long-term expectations about the economy for household behavior. (JEL C93, D12, D84, D91, G51, R31)