Soaking up the Sun: Battery Investment, Renewable Energy, and Market Equilibrium

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Butters, R. Andrew; Dorsey, Jackson; Gowrisankaran, Gautam
• 署名单位: Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; IU Kelley School of Business; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20411
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 891-927
• 关键词: technology adoption; electricity; COSTS

摘要

Renewable energy and battery storage are seen as complementary technologies that can together facilitate reductions in carbon emissions. We develop and estimate a framework to calculate the equilibrium effects of large-scale battery storage. Using data from California, we find that the first storage unit breaks even by 2024 without subsidies when the renewable energy share reaches 50%. Equilibrium effects are important: the first 5000 MWh of storage capacity would reduce wholesale electricity prices by 5.6%, but an increase from 25,000 to 50,000 MWh would only reduce these prices by 2.6%. Large-scale batteries will reduce revenues to both dispatchable generators and renewable energy sources. The equilibrium effects lead battery adoption to be virtually non-existent until 2030, without a storage mandate or subsidy. A 30% capital cost subsidy-such as the one in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act-achieves 5000 MWh of battery capacity by 2024, similar to the level required under California's storage mandate.