The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Garin, Andrew; Koustas, Dmitri; Mcpherson, Carl; Norris, Samuel; Pecenco, Matthew; Rose, Evan K.; Shem-Tov, Yotam; Weaver, Jeffrey
• 署名单位: Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of British Columbia; Brown University; University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Southern California
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22028
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 503-538
• 关键词: labor-market; criminal records; imprisonment; crime; DISCRIMINATION; CONSEQUENCES; models; length; prison

摘要

We study the effect of incarceration on wages, self-employment, and taxes and transfers in North Carolina and Ohio using two quasi-experimental research designs: discontinuities in sentencing guidelines and random assignment to judges. Across both states, incarceration generates short-term drops in economic activity while individuals remain in prison. As a result, a year-long sentence decreases cumulative earnings over five years by 13%. Beyond five years, however, there is no evidence of lower employment, wage earnings, or self-employment in either state, as well as among defendants with no prior incarceration history. These results suggest that upstream factors, such as other types of criminal justice interactions or pre-existing labor market detachment, are more likely to be the cause of low earnings among the previously incarcerated, who we estimate would earn just $5000 per year on average if spared a prison sentence.