The behavior of the exchange rate in the genetic algorithm and experimental economies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Arifovic, J
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/262032
• 发表日期: 1996
• 页码: 510-541
• 关键词: Indeterminacy; volatility

摘要

This paper studies the behavior of the exchange rate in the Kareken-Wallace overlapping generations economy with two currencies in which decision rules are updated using the genetic algorithm. The analysis shows that a stationary monetary equilibrium of the Kareken-Wallace model is not stable under the genetic algorithm dynamics. The fluctuations in the genetic algorithm exchange rate are driven by fluctuations in the portfolio fractions, which change over time in response to the inequality between the rates of return on two currencies. Further, both the genetic algorithm simulations and the experiments with human subjects were characterized by continuing fluctuations of the exchange rate, with first-period consumption values close to a stationary value.