Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Burnside, C; Eichenbaum, M; Rebelo, S
• 署名单位: The World Bank; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/323271
• 发表日期: 2001
• 页码: 1155-1197
• 关键词: payments crises; fiscal theory; balance; MODEL

摘要

This paper argues that a principal cause of the 1997 Asian currency crisis was large prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems. The expectation that these future deficits would be at least partially financed by seigniorage revenues or an inflation tax on outstanding nominal debt led to a collapse of the fixed exchange rate regimes in Asia. We articulate this view using a simple model whose key feature is that a speculative attack is inevitable once the present value of future government deficits rises. We present empirical evidence in support of the key assumptions underlying our interpretation of the crisis.