Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Miguel, E; Satyanath, S; Sergenti, E
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/421174
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 725-753
• 关键词: WAR; GROWTH; AFRICA; weak

摘要

Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981-99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one-half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.