Smoking, Expectations, and Health: A Dynamic Stochastic Model of Lifetime Smoking Behavior

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Darden, Michael
• 署名单位: George Washington University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/693394
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1465-1522
• 关键词: discrete-choice; empirical-analysis; RISK; addiction; TECHNOLOGY; mortality; cessation; DECISION; utility; IMPACT

摘要

I estimate a dynamic, stochastic model of smoking, expectations, and health that makes explicit channels through which an individual may learn about the health risks of smoking. Simulations of the structural model suggest that cardiovascular biomarker information at repeated health exams does not significantly alter smoking behavior because (a) signals of biomarker health are noisy within individuals, (b) the influence of biomarkers on major health outcomes is small, and (c) cigarette smoking is addictive. This paper also presents evidence of selection in smoking that, when not modeled, may cause an overstatement of the effect of smoking on expected longevity.