Estimating the Innovator's Dilemma: Structural Analysis of Creative Destruction in the Hard Disk Drive Industry, 1981-1998

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Igami, Mitsuru
• 署名单位: Yale University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/691524
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 798-847
• 关键词: TECHNOLOGICAL DISCONTINUITIES; market-structure; empirical-model; dynamic-models; entry; FIRMS; CHOICE; COMPETITION; experience; EVOLUTION

摘要

This paper studies strategic industry dynamics of creative destruction in which firms and technologies experience turnover. Theories predict that cannibalization between existing and new products delays incumbents' innovation, whereas preemptive motives accelerate it. Incumbents' cost (dis)advantage relative to that of entrants would further reinforce these tendencies. To empirically assess these three forces, I estimate a dynamic oligopoly model using a unique panel data set of hard disk drive manufacturers. The results suggest that despite strong preemptive motives and a substantial cost advantage over entrants, cannibalization makes incumbents reluctant to innovate, which can explain at least 57 percent of the incumbent-entrant innovation gap.