Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ilut, Cosmin; Kehrig, Matthias; Schneider, Martin
• 署名单位: Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/699189
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 2011-2071
• 关键词: business cycles; uncertainty; INVESTMENT; RISK; PRODUCTIVITY; volatility; dispersion; EFFICIENCY; ambiguity; shocks

摘要

Concave hiring rules imply that firms respond more to bad shocks than to good shocks. They provide a unified explanation for several seemingly unrelated facts about employment growth in macro- and microdata. In particular, they generate countercyclical movement in both aggregate conditional macro volatility and cross-sectional micro volatility, as well as negative skewness in the cross section and in the time series at different levels of aggregation. Concave establishment-level responses of employment growth to total factor productivity shocks estimated from census data induce significant skewness, movements in volatility, and amplification of bad aggregate shocks.