Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ramey, Valerie A.; Zubairy, Sarah
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/696277
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 850-901
• 关键词: world-war-ii; Fiscal multipliers; weak instruments; shocks; POLICY; stimulus; periods; output; taxes

摘要

We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of economic slack or when interest rates are near the zero lower bound. Using new quarterly historical US data covering multiple large wars and deep recessions, we estimate multipliers that are below unity irrespective of the amount of slack in the economy. These results are robust to two leading identification schemes, two different estimation methodologies, and many alternative specifications. In contrast, the results are more mixed for the zero lower bound state, with a few specifications implying multipliers as high as 1.5.