Tax Cuts for Whom? Heterogeneous Effects of Income Tax Changes on Growth and Employment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zidar, Owen
• 署名单位: Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/701424
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1437-1472
• 关键词: fiscal-policy; american recovery; multipliers; consumption; responses; stimulus; welfare; rates

摘要

This paper investigates how tax changes for different income groups affect aggregate economic activity. I construct a measure of who received (or paid for) tax changes in the postwar period using tax return data from NBER's TAXSIM. Variation in the income distribution across US states and federal tax changes generate variation in regional tax shocks that I exploit to test for heterogeneous effects. I find that the positive relationship between tax cuts and employment growth is largely driven by tax cuts for lower-income groups and that the effect of tax cuts for the top 10 percent on employment growth is small.