Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Yagan, Danny
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/701809
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 2505-2558
• 关键词: Disability insurance; unemployment; wages; Heterogeneity; adjustment; decline; COSTS; rise

摘要

This paper uses US local areas as a laboratory to test for long-term impacts of the Great Recession. In administrative longitudinal data, I estimate that exposure to a 1 percentage point larger 2007-9 local unemployment shock reduced 2015 working-age employment rates by over 0.3 percentage points. Rescaled, this long-term recession impact accounts for over half of the 2007-15 US age-adjusted employment decline. Impacts were larger among older and lower-earning individuals and typically involved a layoff but are present even in a mass-layoffs sample. Disability insurance and out-migration yielded little income replacement. These findings reveal that the Great Recession imposed employment and income losses even after unemployment rates signaled recovery.