Comparing the Chosen: Selection Bias When Selection Is Competitive

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Noe, Thomas
• 署名单位: University of Oxford; Bank of Finland
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/704076
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 342-390
• 关键词: Comparative statics; Invariance; dominance

摘要

Consider a decision maker who selects between paired random draws from two unconditional distributions, always selecting the larger draw in the pair. When will the resulting selection-conditioned distributions be ordered by first-order stochastic or monotone likelihood ratio dominance? In various guises, this question arises in many economic contexts-tournaments, contests, auctions, cheap-talk games, announcement returns, qualitative choice models, and treatment effects under self-selection. This paper develops simple, applicable characterizations of the properties of unconditional distributions that result in dominance conditioned on selection and uses these characterizations to analyze a number of economic selection problems.