Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bhuller, Manudeep; Dahl, Gordon B.; Loken, Katrine, V; Mogstad, Magne
• 署名单位: Statistics Norway; University of Oslo; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Bergen; National Bureau of Economic Research; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); Statistics Norway; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; Statistics Norway
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/705330
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1269-1324
• 关键词: disability insurance receipt; instrumental variables; child protection; labor-market; prison; crime; imprisonment; deterrence; assignment; conviction

摘要

Using a random judge design and panel data from Norway, we estimate that imprisonment discourages further criminal behavior, with reoffense probabilities falling by 29 percentage points and criminal charges dropping by 11 over a 5-year period. Ordinary least squares mistakenly reaches the opposite conclusion. The decline is driven by individuals not working prior to incarceration; these individuals increase participation in employment programs and raise their future employment and earnings. Previously employed individuals experience lasting negative employment effects. These findings demonstrate that time spent in prison with a focus on rehabilitation can be preventive for a large segment of the criminal population.