Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei
• 署名单位: University of London; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Harvard University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjs018
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 1243-1285
• 关键词: PREFERENCE-REVERSAL PHENOMENON; Probability weighting function; independence axiom; subjective probabilities; DEPENDENT PREFERENCES; decision-making; prospect-theory; uncertainty; utility; Similarity

摘要

We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor of salient payoffs. By specifying decision weights as a function of payoffs, our model provides a novel and unified account of many empirical phenomena, including frequent risk-seeking behavior, invariance failures such as the Allais paradox, and preference reversals. It also yields new predictions, including some that distinguish it from prospect theory, which we test. JEL Codes: D03, D81.