How Does Incarceration Affect Reoffending? Estimating the Dose-Response Function

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Rose, Evan K.; Shem-Tov, Yotam
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/716561
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: MARGINAL POLICY CHANGES; instrumental variables; selection bias; crime; models; prison; EMPLOYMENT; identification; incapacitation; returns

摘要

We study the causal effect of incarceration on reoffending using discontinuities in North Carolina's sentencing guidelines. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that 1 year of incarceration causes a reduction in the likelihood of being reincarcerated within 3, 5, and 8 years from sentencing by 44%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. To parse the potentially heterogeneous dose response relationship underlying these effects, we develop an econometric model of prison sentences and recidivism. We find that incarceration has meaningful reoffending-reducing average effects that diminish in incarceration length. As a result, budget-neutral reductions in sentence length combined with increases in incarceration rates can decrease recidivism.