Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gollin, Douglas; Hansen, Casper Worm; Wingender, Asger Mose
• 署名单位: University of Oxford; University of Copenhagen
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/714444
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 2344-2384
• 关键词: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH; population; inference; shocks

摘要

We estimate the impact of the Green Revolution in the developing world by exploiting exogenous heterogeneity in the timing and extent of the benefits derived from high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs). We find that HYVs increased yields by 44% between 1965 and 2010, with further gains coming through reallocation of inputs. Higher yields increased income and reduced population growth. A 10-year delay of the Green Revolution would in 2010 have cost 17% of GDP (gross domestic product) per capita and added 223 million people to the developing-world population. The cumulative GDP loss over 45 years would have been US$83 trillion, corresponding to approximately one year of current global GDP.