Forecast Hedging and Calibration

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Foster, Dean P.; Hart, Sergiu
• 署名单位: Amazon.com; Hebrew University of Jerusalem
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/716559
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Uncoupled dynamics

摘要

Calibration means that forecasts and average realized frequencies are close. We develop the concept of forecast hedging, which consists of choosing the forecasts so as to guarantee that the expected track record can only improve. This yields all the calibration results by the same simple basic argument while differentiating between them by the forecast-hedging tools used: deterministic and fixed point based versus stochastic and minimax based. Additional contributions are an improved definition of continuous calibration, ensuing game dynamics that yield Nash equilibria in the long run, and a new calibrated forecasting procedure for binary events that is simpler than all known such procedures.