Mismatch Cycles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baley, Isaac; Figueiredo, Ana; Ulbricht, Robert
• 署名单位: Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Pompeu Fabra University; Tinbergen Institute; Boston College
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/720461
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 2943-2984
• 关键词: job; unemployment; search; cyclicality; mobility; earnings; workers; wages

摘要

This paper studies the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and quantifies its impact on labor productivity. We build a tractable directed search model, in which workers differ in skills along multiple dimensions and sort into jobs with heterogeneous skill requirements. Skill mismatch arises because of information frictions and is prolonged by search frictions. Estimated to the United States, the model replicates salient business cycle properties of mismatch. Job transitions in and out of bottom job rungs, combined with career mobility, are key to account for the empirical fit. The model provides a novel narrative for the scarring effect of unemployment.