The Economic Effects of Long-Term Climate Change: Evidence from the Little Ice Age

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Waldinger, Maria
• 署名单位: Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/720393
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: agricultural output; random fluctuations; SPATIALLY EXPLICIT; UNITED-STATES; land-use; temperature; adaptation; migration; weather; Europe

摘要

Recent studies consistently find important economic effects of year-to-year weather fluctuations. I study the economic effects of long-term and gradual climate change over 250 years in the Little Ice Age (1600-1850), during which people and economies had time to adapt. Results show significant negative economic effects of long-term climate change. Temperature impacted the economy through its effect on agricultural productivity and mortality. To adapt to the Little Ice Age, economies increased trade and changed land use. I discuss the relevance of these results for understanding the impact of today's climate change, especially in developing countries.