A Semistructural Methodology for Policy Counterfactuals

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Beraja, Martin
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/720982
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: monetary-policy

摘要

I propose a methodology for constructing counterfactuals with respect to changes in policy rules that does not require fully specifying a particular model yet is not subject to Lucas critique. It applies to a class of dynamic stochastic models whose equilibria are well approximated by a linear representation. It rests on the insight that many such models satisfy a principle of counterfactual equivalence: they are observationally equivalent under a benchmark policy and yield an identical counterfactual equilibrium under an alternative one.