Identifying the Effect of Persuasion

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jun, Sung Jae; Lee, Sokbae
• 署名单位: Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Columbia University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/724114
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 2032-2058
• 关键词: instrumental variables; media; identification; returns; models; cross; BIAS

摘要

This paper examines a commonly used measure of persuasion whose precise interpretation has been obscure in the literature. By using the potential outcome framework, we define the causal persuasion rate by a proper conditional probability of taking the action of interest with a persuasive message conditional on not taking the action without the message. We then formally study identification under empirically relevant data scenarios and show that the commonly adopted measure generally does not estimate-but often overstates-the causal rate of persuasion. We discuss several new parameters of interest and provide practical methods for causal inference.