The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Auclert, Adrien; Rognlie, Matthew; Straub, Ludwig
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Harvard University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/732531
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 4068-4121
• 关键词: fiscal-policy; monetary-policy; consumption; income; prices; multiplier; stimulus; debt; redistribution; expenditure

摘要

We generalize the traditional, static Keynesian cross by deriving an intertemporal Keynesian cross for the dynamic output response to government spending and taxes in microfounded general equilibrium models. Intertemporal marginal propensities to consume (iMPCs) are sufficient statistics for this response, with fiscal multipliers depending only on the interaction between iMPCs and public deficits. We provide empirical estimates of iMPCs and argue that they are inconsistent with representative agent or two-agent models but can be matched by certain heterogeneous agent models. Models that match empirical iMPCs imply larger and more persistent output responses to deficit-financed fiscal policy, with cumulative spending multipliers above 1.