A MODEL OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Farhi, Emmanuel; Maggiori, Matteo
• 署名单位: National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjx031
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 295-355
• 关键词: global imbalances; Deposit insurance; market power; Bank runs; liquidity; demand; debt; RISK

摘要

We propose a simple model of the international monetary system. We study the world supply and demand for reserve assets denominated in different currencies under a variety of scenarios: a hegemon versus a multipolar world; abundant versus scarce reserve assets; and a gold exchange standard versus a floating rate system. We rationalize the Triffin dilemma, which posits the fundamental instability of the system, as well as the common prediction regarding the natural and beneficial emergence of a multipolar world, the Nurkse warning that a multipolar world is more unstable than a hegemon world, and the Keynesian argument that a scarcity of reserve assets under a gold standard or at the zero lower bound is recessionary. Our analysis is both positive and normative.