THE IMPACTS OF NEIGHBORHOODS ON INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY II: COUNTY-LEVEL ESTIMATES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chetty, Raj; Hendren, Nathaniel
• 署名单位: Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjy006
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1163-1228
• 关键词: opportunity; exposure; CHILDREN

摘要

We estimate the causal effect of each county in the United States on children's incomes in adulthood. We first estimate a fixed effects model that is identified by analyzing families who move across counties with children of different ages. We then use these fixed effect estimates to (i) quantify how much places matter for intergenerational mobility, (ii) construct forecasts of the causal effect of growing up in each county that can be used to guide families seeking to move to opportunity, and (iii) characterize which types of areas produce better outcomes. For children growing up in low-income families, each year of childhood exposure to a one standard deviation (std. dev.) better county increases income in adulthood by 0.5%. There is substantial variation in counties' causal effects even within metro areas. Counties with less concentrated poverty, less income inequality, better schools, a larger share of two-parent families, and lower crime rates tend to produce better outcomes for children in poor families. Boys' outcomes varymore across areas than girls' outcomes, and boys have especially negative outcomes in highly segregated areas. Areas that generate better outcomes have higher house prices on average, but our approach uncovers many opportunity bargains-places that generate good outcomes but are not very expensive.