Vacancy Chains

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Elsby, Michael W. L.; Gottfries, Axel; Michaels, Ryan; Ratner, David
• 署名单位: University of Edinburgh; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/737234
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: labor demand; job destruction; equilibrium unemployment; cyclical behavior; empirical-model; wage dispersion; UNITED-STATES; search; adjustment; aggregate

摘要

Replacement hiring plays a central role in establishment dynamics. US establishments frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years, despite facing substantial gross turnover. We devise a tractable model in which replacement hiring is driven by a novel structure of frictions, combining firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and investments into job creation that are sunk at the point of replacement. A key implication is the emergence of vacancy chains. Quantitatively, the model reconciles the incidence of replacement hiring with large cross-establishment dispersion in labor productivity and largely replicates the volatility and persistence of job creation and unemployment.