THE RETURN TO PROTECTIONISM

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fajgelbaum, Pablo D.; Goldberg, Pinelopi K.; Kennedy, Patrick J.; Khandelwal, Amit K.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; The World Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjz036
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1-55
• 关键词: trade liberalization; demand elasticities; exchange-rates; TARIFFS; IMPACT; COMPETITION; TECHNOLOGY; MARKETS; gravity; prices

摘要

After decades of supporting free trade, in 2018 the United States raised import tariffs and major trade partners retaliated. We analyze the short-run impact of this return to protectionism on the U.S. economy. Import and retaliatory tariffs caused large declines in imports and exports. Prices of imports targeted by tariffs did not fall, implying complete pass-through of tariffs to duty-inclusive prices. The resulting losses to U.S. consumers and firms that buy imports was $51 billion, or 0.27% of GDP. We embed the estimated trade elasticities in a general-equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. After accounting for tariff revenue and gains to domestic producers, the aggregate real income loss was $7.2 billion, or 0.04% of GDP. Import tariffs favored sectors concentrated in politically competitive counties, and the model implies that tradeable-sector workers in heavily Republican counties were the most negatively affected due to the retaliatory tariffs.