College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Arcidiacono, Peter; Aucejo, Esteban; Maurel, Arnaud; Ransom, Tyler
• 署名单位: Duke University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/732526
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 53-110
• 关键词: discrete-choice models; borrowing constraints; option value; distributions; uncertainty; INEQUALITY; likelihood; education; returns; ability

摘要

We examine how informational frictions impact schooling and work outcomes by estimating a dynamic structural model where individuals face uncertainty about their academic ability and productivity, which determine their schooling utility and wages. We account for different college types, majors, occupational search frictions, and work hours. Individuals learn from grades and wages, which may affect their choices. Removing informational frictions would increase graduation by 4.4 percentage points and by an additional 2 points without search frictions. Providing students with full information about their abilities would increase the college and white-collar wage premia while reducing the graduation gap by family income.