DO YOU KNOW THAT I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW. . . ? HIGHER-ORDER BELIEFS IN SURVEY DATA

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kumar, Saten; Ryngaert, Jane
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Auckland University of Technology; Wake Forest University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjab005
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 1387-1446
• 关键词: inflation-expectations; probability; BEHAVIOR; FIRMS

摘要

We implement a new survey of firms, focusing on their higher-order macroeconomic expectations. The survey provides a novel set of stylized facts regarding the relationship between first-order and higher-order expectations of economic agents, including how they adjust their beliefs in response to a variety of information treatments. We show how these facts can be used to calibrate key parameters of noisy-information models with infinite regress as well as to test predictions made by this class of models. We also consider a range of extensions to the basic noisy-information model that can potentially better reconcile theory and empirics. Although some extensions like level-k thinking are unsuccessful, incorporating heterogeneous long-run priors can address the empirical shortcomings of the basic noisy-information model.