The Race Between Education, Technology, and the Minimum Wage*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Vogel, Jonathan
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaf014
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1857-1899
• 关键词: the-job search; INEQUALITY; dispersion; demand

摘要

What is the effect of the real minimum wage on wages and inequality? I develop a theory that nests the race between education and technology. The theory predicts that the effect of changes in minimum wages is initially small but grows over time. I present empirical evidence of these dynamic effects: the elasticity of real wages grows substantially over a three-year period. I show that minimum wages help rationalize a considerable decline in real wages of low-education workers in the 1980s and play a role in shaping the evolution of the U.S. college premium.