Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cloyne, James S.; Surico, Paolo
• 署名单位: Bank of England; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London Business School
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdw021
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 45-81
• 关键词: policy shocks; consumption

摘要

Using a new narrative measure of fiscal policy shocks for the U.K., we show that households with mortgage debt exhibit large and significant consumption responses to tax changes. Homeowners without a mortgage, in contrast, do not adjust their expenditure, with responses not statistically different from zero at all horizons. We compare our findings to the predictions of traditional and newer theories of liquidity constraints, providing a novel interpretation for the aggregate effects of tax changes on the macroeconomy.