An Experiment on Time Preference and Misprediction in Unpleasant Tasks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Augenblick, Ned; Rabin, Matthew
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdy019
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 941-975
• 关键词: projection bias; self-control; CHOICE; procrastination; PSYCHOLOGY; incentives; temptation; deadlines; delay; RISK

摘要

We experimentally investigate the time-inconsistent taste for immediate gratification and future-preference misprediction. Across 7 weeks, 100 participants choose the number of unpleasant transcription tasks given various wages to complete immediately and at different future dates. Participants preferred 10-12% fewer tasks in the present compared to any future date, leading to an estimated beta of 0.83. Comparing predictions with actual immediate-work choices provides evidence against substantial sophistication, with estimates implying that participants understand no more than 24% of their present bias. Finally, we find evidence of projection bias: participants wished to complete 4-12% fewer tasks when decisions were elicited right after completing tasks rather than before.