Long-Run Price Elasticities of Demand for Credit: Evidence from a Countrywide Field Experiment in Mexico

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Karlan, Dean; Zinman, Jonathan
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA); National Bureau of Economic Research; Dartmouth College
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdy046
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1704-1746
• 关键词: interest-rates matter; consumer-credit; constraints; Microcredit; BEHAVIOR; MARKET

摘要

We use randomized interest rates, offered across eighty geographically distinct regions for twenty-nine months by Mexico's largest microlender, to sketch the adjustment from a price change to a new equilibrium. Demand is elastic, and more so over the longer run; e.g. the dollars-borrowed elasticity increases from -1.1 in Year one to -2.9 in Year three. Credit bureau data do not show evidence of crowd-out, although this and other null results are imprecisely estimated. The lender's profits increase, albeit noisily, starting in Year two. But competitors do not respond by reducing rates. These findings, together with other results, suggest that informational frictions are important, and that cutting rates furthered Compartamos Banco's double bottom line of improving social welfare subject to a profitability constraint.