Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Deschenes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Brookings Institution
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.3.4.152
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 152-185
• 关键词: impact

摘要

Using random year-to-year variation in temperature, we document the relationship between daily temperatures and annual mortality rates and daily temperatures and annual residential energy consumption. Both relationships exhibit nonlinearities, with significant increases at the extremes of the temperature distribution. The application of these results to business as usual climate predictions indicates that by the end of the century climate change will lead to increases of 3 percent in the age-adjusted mortality rate and 11 percent in annual residential energy consumption. These estimates likely overstate the long-run costs, because climate change will unfold gradually allowing individuals to engage in a wider set of adaptations.