Can Owning a Home Hedge the Risk of Moving?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sinai, Todd; Souleles, Nicholas
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.5.2.282
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 282-312
• 关键词: house prices; consumption; MARKET; equity; income

摘要

For households that face a possibility of moving across MSAs, the risk of home owning depends on the covariance of the sale prices of their current houses with the purchase prices of their likely future houses. We find empirically that households tend to move between highly correlated MSAs, significantly increasing the distribution of expected correlations in real house price growth across MSAs, and so raising the moving-hedge value of owning. Own/rent decisions are sensitive to this hedging value, with households being more likely to own when their hedging value is greater due to higher expected correlations and likelihoods of moving.