Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dix-Carneiro, Rafael; Soares, Rodrigo R.; Ulyssea, Gabriel
• 署名单位: Duke University; Columbia University; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20170080
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 158-195
• 关键词: import competition; UNITED-STATES; unemployment; INEQUALITY; VIOLENCE; rates; identification; adjustment; DEPRESSION; DYNAMICS

摘要

This paper studies the effect of changes in economic conditions on crime. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local economies. We document that regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. Next, we investigate through what channels the trade-induced economic shocks may have affected crime. We show that the shocks had significant effects on potential determinants of crime, such as labor market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality. We propose a novel framework exploiting the distinct dynamic responses of these variables to obtain bounds on the effect of labor market conditions on crime. Our results indicate that this channel accounts for 75 to 93 percent of the effect of the trade-induced shocks on crime.